Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Hughes wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs Cates 45.1% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 20-11 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 90.8%
Defensive zone
Hughes 65.8%
Neutral zone
Hughes 82.7%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Hughes
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
20
(31 meetings)
11
20
Hughes
Cates
Last 10: Hughes 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Hughes
Cates
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
9
Hughes
Cates
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
4
6
Hughes
Cates
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
46.7% (912)
-8.8%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
33.9% (56)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
35.0% (137)
+1.4%
On even strength, Cates has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Hughes shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Hughes
Cates
Home
36.6% (314)
46.1% (521)
Away
38.5% (353)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Hughes
Cates
P1
36.4%
48.0%
P2
35.6%
42.3%
P3
41.8%
44.3%
OT
0.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
36.4%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 16:36 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 11:00 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 19:26 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 07:28 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 02:46 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:39 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:32 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Noah Cates |