Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +19.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-19.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 69.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Hughes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Hughes
O'Reilly
Last 9: Hughes 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Hughes
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Hughes
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
56.2% (15,260)
-20.2%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
58.8% (3,445)
-20.0%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
51.4% (2,811)
-20.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Hughes shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Hughes
O'Reilly
Home
36.8% (1,670)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Hughes
O'Reilly
P1
36.9%
55.6%
P2
33.6%
57.0%
P3
38.1%
55.1%
OT
37.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
34.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 15:37 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 17:39 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 03:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |