Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +22.2% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 33.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 38.0% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-22.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 78.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 52.7%
Neutral zone
Hughes 70.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Hughes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Hughes
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hughes
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hughes
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
34.5% (342)
56.6% (1,064)
-22.1%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
60.4% (260)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
54.0% (261)
-29.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +29.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hughes is 33.8% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Hughes shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Hughes
O'Reilly
Home
32.6% (187)
54.9% (801)
Away
36.7% (166)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Hughes
O'Reilly
P1
33.9%
58.0%
P2
34.2%
56.7%
P3
36.5%
55.4%
OT
0.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
29.7%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
34.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 17:39 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 03:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |