Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +18.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-18.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 80.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 81.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 75.0%
25.0%
75.0%
Hughes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hughes
O'Reilly
Last 7: Hughes 4-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
56.2% (983)
-18.3%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
55.5% (254)
-22.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
52.0% (102)
-15.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Hughes shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Hughes
O'Reilly
Home
36.6% (314)
56.2% (697)
Away
38.5% (353)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Hughes
O'Reilly
P1
36.4%
54.5%
P2
35.6%
55.5%
P3
41.8%
57.1%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
36.4%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 15:37 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |