Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. McBain wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 45.9% vs Tavares 58.7% (-14.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 93.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 64.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 83.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 86.7%
13.3%
86.7%
McBain
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
McBain
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (568)
59.2% (1,035)
-12.9%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
60.0% (310)
-22.5%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (74)
42.9% (7)
-5.1%
On power play, Tavares has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McBain shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
McBain
Tavares
Home
50.6% (330)
57.5% (668)
Away
39.7% (320)
61.1% (684)
By Period
McBain
Tavares
P1
45.4%
58.0%
P2
44.5%
60.1%
P3
45.7%
61.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
60.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
45.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:08 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 13:31 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Jack McBain |