Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 49.9% vs Tavares 57.7% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 54.4%
Defensive zone
McBain 53.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 54.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
McBain
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McBain
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
McBain
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (424)
57.7% (998)
-6.5%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
60.5% (271)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
27.3% (22)
56.4% (39)
-29.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +29.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McBain is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (316).
McBain shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
McBain
Tavares
Home
53.6% (235)
59.7% (610)
Away
46.0% (224)
57.0% (698)
By Period
McBain
Tavares
P1
48.6%
57.2%
P2
50.9%
58.5%
P3
50.0%
59.4%
Final 5 min
55.1%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
49.9%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 18:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Jack McBain |