Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McBain wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Tavares 57.2% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 67.8%
Defensive zone
McBain 83.6%
Neutral zone
McBain 71.2%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 69.3%
69.3%
30.7%
McBain
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
McBain
Tavares
Last 9: McBain 2-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
McBain
Tavares
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
McBain
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
58.0% (914)
-5.9%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
57.0% (235)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
57.9% (19)
-20.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McBain is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (349).
McBain shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
McBain
Tavares
Home
52.2% (289)
57.8% (614)
Away
50.0% (316)
57.8% (554)
By Period
McBain
Tavares
P1
52.6%
58.0%
P2
53.6%
56.9%
P3
47.1%
58.4%
OT
50.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
54.1%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 07:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:19 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 04:46 | Neutral | John Tavares |