Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. McBain wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 44.7% vs Sturm 55.2% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 54.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 52.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 52.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
McBain
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McBain
Sturm
Last 8: McBain 4-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McBain
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (675)
56.1% (716)
-10.8%
Power Play
50.0% (16)
67.7% (31)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (149)
51.1% (133)
-13.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McBain is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
McBain shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
McBain
Sturm
Home
45.5% (437)
55.6% (412)
Away
42.4% (403)
56.0% (468)
By Period
McBain
Sturm
P1
43.5%
59.6%
P2
44.0%
52.0%
P3
45.0%
55.5%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
44.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 11:17 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 01:44 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 16:33 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 16:21 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 05:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 01:26 | Offensive | Jack McBain |