Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Sturm 56.1% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McBain 77.4%
Defensive zone
McBain 74.2%
Neutral zone
McBain 77.0%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 76.0%
76.0%
24.0%
McBain
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
McBain
Sturm
Last 10: McBain 3-7 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
McBain
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
McBain
Sturm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
3
McBain
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (2,298)
57.1% (2,719)
-9.1%
Power Play
49.0% (51)
61.3% (62)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (308)
51.0% (498)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McBain is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,667).
McBain shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
McBain
Sturm
Home
49.0% (1,359)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
44.0% (1,298)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
McBain
Sturm
P1
46.7%
56.5%
P2
47.5%
54.9%
P3
45.6%
57.4%
OT
37.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
48.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 16:54 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 11:17 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 01:44 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 16:33 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 16:21 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 05:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 01:26 | Offensive | Jack McBain |