Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwartz 50.0% vs Duchene 54.1% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Schwartz 87.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 66.0%
Neutral zone
Schwartz 67.2%
Result
Jaden Schwartz favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Schwartz
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Schwartz
Duchene
Last 10: Schwartz 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Schwartz
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
7
Schwartz
Duchene
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Schwartz
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwartz
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (651)
53.9% (10,396)
-6.7%
Power Play
56.2% (345)
56.9% (1,665)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (46)
49.1% (468)
-5.6%
On even strength, Duchene has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Schwartz is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Schwartz shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Schwartz
Duchene
Home
51.3% (526)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
48.6% (516)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Schwartz
Duchene
P1
49.1%
54.5%
P2
49.7%
54.5%
P3
51.0%
53.4%
OT
53.3%
56.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwartz
58.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 19, 2017 | 1 | 16:00 | Defensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Mar 31, 2017 | OT | 04:17 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 1 | 19:23 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 1 | 19:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2 | 04:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 16:27 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Feb 20, 2013 | 3 | 04:33 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 20, 2013 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |