Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 60.8% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.8% vs Evans 55.4% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 55.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 59.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 50.3%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Lowry
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Evans
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Lowry
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (660)
56.2% (477)
-0.4%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
70.0% (10)
+13.3%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
55.4% (204)
-14.0%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Lowry is 60.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Lowry shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Home / Away
Lowry
Evans
Home
54.5% (402)
55.3% (374)
Away
54.1% (351)
57.1% (317)
By Period
Lowry
Evans
P1
52.4%
58.5%
P2
56.3%
55.7%
P3
54.7%
53.9%
OT
44.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
58.5%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
54.0%▼
56.0%
54.3%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |