Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Evans 52.6% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 60.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 90.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 77.0%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 82.2%
17.8%
82.2%
Matthews
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Matthews
Evans
Last 10: Matthews 2-8 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
7
Matthews
Evans
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Matthews
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
54.4% (824)
+3.9%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
66.7% (9)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
48.1% (289)
+2.6%
On power play, Evans has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Home / Away
Matthews
Evans
Home
59.1% (528)
55.1% (541)
Away
55.1% (695)
50.8% (581)
By Period
Matthews
Evans
P1
56.2%
51.8%
P2
58.1%
53.3%
P3
56.4%
53.8%
OT
50.0%
38.5%
Final 5 min
55.5%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:35 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:51 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:06 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:58 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Jake Evans |