Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 49.8%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Evans 49.8% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 88.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 90.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 53.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 76.1%
23.9%
76.1%
Tkachuk
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Tkachuk
Evans
Last 10: Tkachuk 3-7 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
8
Tkachuk
Evans
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (183)
51.3% (739)
-5.9%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
53.3% (15)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
43.0% (172)
+57.0%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +57.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Tkachuk is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (198).
Tkachuk shoots left. Evans is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (667).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Evans
Home
51.1% (233)
52.1% (503)
Away
49.0% (202)
47.0% (423)
By Period
Tkachuk
Evans
P1
42.9%
50.5%
P2
52.2%
47.7%
P3
53.7%
51.3%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 12:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 01:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 12:08 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 15:54 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 07:44 | Defensive | Jake Evans |