Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Guentzel 47.4% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 84.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 88.1%
Neutral zone
Evans 51.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 88.1%
88.1%
11.9%
Evans
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Evans
Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Guentzel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
49.0% (200)
+7.2%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
42.3% (111)
+27.7%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
45.8% (24)
+9.6%
On power play, Evans has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Guentzel is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Evans
Guentzel
Home
55.3% (374)
48.8% (166)
Away
57.1% (317)
44.4% (169)
By Period
Evans
Guentzel
P1
58.5%
46.7%
P2
55.7%
48.5%
P3
53.9%
44.3%
OT
66.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
54.3%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |