Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Guentzel 46.3% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Guentzel 69.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 98.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 85.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Evans
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Evans
Guentzel
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
6
2
Evans
Guentzel
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Guentzel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
46.3% (685)
+7.5%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
45.7% (291)
+14.3%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
42.9% (42)
+4.2%
On power play, Evans has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Guentzel is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Evans
Guentzel
Home
53.4% (2,593)
48.3% (544)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
43.2% (474)
By Period
Evans
Guentzel
P1
54.0%
47.8%
P2
50.9%
45.2%
P3
52.0%
45.3%
OT
46.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 15:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 08:43 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 09:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |