Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Tavares 57.7% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 17-14 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 79.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 77.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 52.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Evans
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
17
(31 meetings)
14
17
Evans
Tavares
Last 10: Evans 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
10
Evans
Tavares
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
8
2
Evans
Tavares
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Evans
Tavares
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
57.7% (998)
-3.3%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
60.5% (271)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
56.4% (39)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Home / Away
Evans
Tavares
Home
55.1% (541)
59.7% (610)
Away
50.8% (581)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Evans
Tavares
P1
51.8%
57.2%
P2
53.3%
58.5%
P3
53.8%
59.4%
OT
38.5%
46.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:16 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 05:10 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 15:49 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 06:46 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 03:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:47 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 16:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |