Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Tavares 57.2% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 84.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.0%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Evans
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
9
(20 meetings)
11
9
Evans
Tavares
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
5
Evans
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
11
2
Evans
Tavares
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Evans
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
58.0% (914)
-1.8%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
57.0% (235)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
57.9% (19)
-2.5%
On power play, Evans has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Evans
Tavares
Home
55.3% (374)
57.8% (614)
Away
57.1% (317)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Evans
Tavares
P1
58.5%
58.0%
P2
55.7%
56.9%
P3
53.9%
58.4%
OT
66.7%
57.7%
Final 5 min
54.3%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |