Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 43 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Tavares 54.4% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 61-47 in 108 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 84.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 54.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Evans
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
61
(108 meetings)
47
61
Evans
Tavares
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
38
Evans
Tavares
43 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
32
10
Evans
Tavares
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
10
13
Evans
Tavares
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
54.0% (16,108)
-0.2%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
56.5% (4,283)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
50.6% (620)
-3.5%
On power play, Evans has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Home / Away
Evans
Tavares
Home
53.4% (2,593)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Evans
Tavares
P1
54.0%
55.0%
P2
50.9%
54.1%
P3
52.0%
54.1%
OT
46.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
50.4%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |