Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs Duchene 55.6% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 88.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 66.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 74.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 88.0%
12.0%
88.0%
Evans
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Evans
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
56.5% (566)
-2.1%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
61.3% (62)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
22.2% (9)
+23.9%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +23.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Evans shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Evans
Duchene
Home
53.7% (581)
56.6% (318)
Away
50.5% (556)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Evans
Duchene
P1
54.6%
57.2%
P2
50.0%
55.1%
P3
52.3%
55.6%
OT
46.7%
81.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 01:16 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 03:25 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 08:54 | Offensive | Jake Evans |