Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 52.4%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Duchene 52.1% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 71.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 61.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 67.3%
32.7%
67.3%
Evans
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Evans
Duchene
Last 10: Evans 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
7
Evans
Duchene
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Evans
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
53.0% (723)
+1.4%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
49.5% (101)
+17.2%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
43.8% (16)
+4.3%
On power play, Evans has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Evans
Duchene
Home
55.1% (541)
54.9% (408)
Away
50.8% (581)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Evans
Duchene
P1
51.8%
52.5%
P2
53.3%
51.7%
P3
53.8%
53.6%
OT
38.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:30 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:17 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OT | 01:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |