Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Rantanen on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Rantanen 50.8% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Rantanen leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Rantanen 87.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 92.7%
Neutral zone
Rantanen 54.5%
Result
Mikko Rantanen favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Evans
Rantanen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Evans
Rantanen
Last 10: Evans 4-6 Rantanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rantanen
0
6
Evans
Rantanen
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
4
0
Evans
Rantanen
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Rantanen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Rantanen
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
51.0% (1,522)
+2.8%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
50.8% (484)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
14.3% (7)
+32.8%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +32.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rantanen shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Rantanen is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (785).
Home / Away
Evans
Rantanen
Home
53.4% (2,593)
53.0% (1,067)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
48.3% (946)
By Period
Evans
Rantanen
P1
54.0%
49.0%
P2
50.9%
51.3%
P3
52.0%
51.8%
OT
46.5%
57.8%
Final 5 min
50.4%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:04 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Jan 4, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 19:56 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 07:26 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 04:29 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 18:53 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 07:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |