Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.2% vs 56.3%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Frost 55.7% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 88.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 83.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Evans
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Evans
Frost
Last 5: Evans 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
2
Evans
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
54.9% (701)
+1.3%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
60.8% (166)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
100.0% (5)
-44.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +44.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Evans
Frost
Home
55.3% (374)
56.0% (443)
Away
57.1% (317)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Evans
Frost
P1
58.5%
58.9%
P2
55.7%
55.3%
P3
53.9%
54.0%
OT
66.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 08:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |