Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Frost 51.1% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 90.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 89.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 53.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Evans
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Evans
Frost
Last 5: Evans 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
50.3% (825)
+4.1%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
54.9% (204)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
50.0% (4)
-1.9%
On power play, Evans has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Home / Away
Evans
Frost
Home
55.1% (541)
50.7% (489)
Away
50.8% (581)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Evans
Frost
P1
51.8%
53.6%
P2
53.3%
47.8%
P3
53.8%
52.0%
OT
38.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:01 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |