Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Frost 50.3% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 19-10 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 70.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 95.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 64.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
Evans
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
10
(29 meetings)
19
10
Evans
Frost
Last 10: Evans 6-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
5
Evans
Frost
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
10
1
Evans
Frost
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
6
4
Evans
Frost
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
49.4% (3,598)
+4.4%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
55.5% (625)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
52.8% (36)
-5.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Home / Away
Evans
Frost
Home
53.4% (2,593)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Evans
Frost
P1
54.0%
50.8%
P2
50.9%
51.1%
P3
52.0%
48.5%
OT
46.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.4%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 08:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:01 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 15:52 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:15 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:12 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 08:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 13:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 13:04 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 12:58 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |