Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 93.3%
Neutral zone
Evans 71.0%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Evans
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Evans
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
50.0% (992)
+6.2%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
64.9% (148)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
34.4% (32)
+21.0%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Evans
MacKinnon
Home
55.3% (374)
53.3% (591)
Away
57.1% (317)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Evans
MacKinnon
P1
58.5%
49.9%
P2
55.7%
53.2%
P3
53.9%
50.8%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.3%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Jake Evans |