Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Evans wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 49.8% vs Dowd 53.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 73.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 63.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 50.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Evans
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Evans
Dowd
Last 9: Evans 4-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Evans
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (739)
55.4% (771)
-4.1%
Power Play
53.3% (15)
57.1% (7)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (172)
45.5% (165)
-2.5%
On even strength, Dowd has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Evans is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Evans shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Evans
Dowd
Home
52.1% (503)
58.2% (462)
Away
47.0% (423)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Evans
Dowd
P1
50.5%
55.6%
P2
47.7%
50.5%
P3
51.3%
53.9%
OT
40.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 06:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 12:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 08:44 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Jake Evans |