Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Dowd 49.1% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 73.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 59.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 69.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Evans
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Evans
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
51.7% (644)
+4.5%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
0.0% (2)
+70.0%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
41.6% (221)
+13.8%
On power play, Evans has a +70.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Evans
Dowd
Home
55.3% (374)
48.6% (451)
Away
57.1% (317)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Evans
Dowd
P1
58.5%
49.1%
P2
55.7%
47.3%
P3
53.9%
51.4%
OT
66.7%
30.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:42 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |