Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs Dowd 48.3% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 69.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 67.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 63.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Evans
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Evans
Dowd
Last 5: Evans 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Evans
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Evans
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
49.2% (778)
+5.2%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
58.3% (12)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
44.0% (234)
+2.1%
On even strength, Evans has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Evans is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (282).
Evans shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Evans
Dowd
Home
53.7% (581)
46.3% (492)
Away
50.5% (556)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Evans
Dowd
P1
54.6%
49.1%
P2
50.0%
48.2%
P3
52.3%
46.9%
OT
46.7%
71.4%
Final 5 min
49.6%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 03:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 13:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:03 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Jake Evans |