Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 18-15 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 66.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 60.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 58.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Evans
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
18
(33 meetings)
15
18
Evans
Dowd
Last 10: Evans 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
5
0
Evans
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
11
Evans
Dowd
14 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
Evans
Dowd
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
52.4% (6,009)
+1.4%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
56.1% (164)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
44.1% (1,635)
+3.0%
On power play, Evans has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Evans is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,292).
Evans shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Evans
Dowd
Home
53.4% (2,593)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Evans
Dowd
P1
54.0%
51.7%
P2
50.9%
50.4%
P3
52.0%
50.3%
OT
46.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
50.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:42 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:28 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 11:01 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 03:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 13:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:03 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 16:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:09 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |