Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Dowd 49.9% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 84.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 62.3%
Neutral zone
Evans 52.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Evans
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Evans
Dowd
Last 10: Evans 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Evans
Dowd
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
52.2% (835)
+2.2%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
60.0% (10)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
44.0% (350)
+4.1%
On power play, Evans has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Evans is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Evans shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Evans
Dowd
Home
55.1% (541)
51.5% (619)
Away
50.8% (581)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Evans
Dowd
P1
51.8%
51.7%
P2
53.3%
51.6%
P3
53.8%
47.0%
OT
38.5%
22.2%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:28 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 11:01 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |