Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 59.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.2% vs Thomas 52.3% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 87.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 66.0%
Neutral zone
Thomas 64.8%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Evans
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Evans
Thomas
Last 5: Evans 1-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Evans
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
Evans
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (591)
51.0% (783)
+5.0%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
60.9% (133)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
54.7% (243)
53.2% (126)
+1.5%
On power play, Evans has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Evans is 59.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Evans shoots right. Thomas is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (301).
Home / Away
Evans
Thomas
Home
54.9% (452)
52.5% (467)
Away
57.0% (393)
52.5% (575)
By Period
Evans
Thomas
P1
57.5%
50.8%
P2
55.8%
53.9%
P3
54.2%
52.7%
OT
57.1%
53.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
60.0%▲
54.5%
55.9%
Thomas
48.0%▼
55.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:03 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |