Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 52.9%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs Thomas 52.7% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 74.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 75.2%
Neutral zone
Thomas 52.5%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Evans
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Evans
Thomas
Last 10: Evans 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Thomas
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Evans
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
53.6% (924)
+0.9%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
55.2% (181)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
44.0% (116)
-0.1%
On power play, Evans has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Evans is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Evans shoots right. Thomas is 59.4% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Evans
Thomas
Home
49.4% (336)
53.6% (606)
Away
54.8% (314)
52.2% (615)
By Period
Evans
Thomas
P1
55.8%
48.2%
P2
51.7%
55.3%
P3
48.2%
55.2%
OT
100.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
49.0%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 19:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 16:15 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:47 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:05 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 02:07 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 18:13 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 17:20 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |