Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 53.1%). Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs Thomas 52.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 76.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 75.5%
Neutral zone
Thomas 54.2%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Evans
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Evans
Thomas
Last 8: Evans 4-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
3
Evans
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
53.2% (1,166)
+1.2%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
56.9% (262)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
48.4% (221)
-2.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Evans is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (282).
Evans shoots right. Thomas is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Home / Away
Evans
Thomas
Home
53.7% (581)
51.6% (830)
Away
50.5% (556)
54.7% (819)
By Period
Evans
Thomas
P1
54.6%
52.7%
P2
50.0%
55.6%
P3
52.3%
50.6%
OT
46.7%
61.5%
Final 5 min
49.6%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2024 | 3 | 10:24 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 05:19 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |