Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Thomas 51.7% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 87.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 56.6%
Neutral zone
Thomas 69.4%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Evans
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Evans
Thomas
Last 5: Evans 1-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Evans
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
Evans
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
50.1% (615)
+6.1%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
62.2% (98)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
52.6% (114)
+2.8%
On power play, Evans has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Thomas is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Evans
Thomas
Home
55.3% (374)
51.9% (374)
Away
57.1% (317)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Evans
Thomas
P1
58.5%
49.2%
P2
55.7%
55.3%
P3
53.9%
50.6%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.3%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:03 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |