Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.8% vs 49.9%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 49.8% vs Thomas 49.9% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 67.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 81.8%
Neutral zone
Evans 54.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Evans
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Evans
Thomas
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Thomas
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (739)
49.0% (910)
+2.3%
Power Play
53.3% (15)
53.5% (142)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (172)
53.3% (75)
-10.3%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Evans is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Evans shoots right. Thomas is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Evans
Thomas
Home
52.1% (503)
47.3% (514)
Away
47.0% (423)
52.0% (613)
By Period
Evans
Thomas
P1
50.5%
50.4%
P2
47.7%
47.5%
P3
51.3%
51.4%
OT
40.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2022 | OT | 01:00 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 16:28 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 15:23 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:17 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 13:45 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |