Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Poehling 50.8% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poehling 58.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 54.5%
Neutral zone
Poehling 55.1%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Evans
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Evans
Poehling
Last 5: Evans 2-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Evans
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Evans
Poehling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Poehling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
52.6% (622)
+1.8%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
58.3% (12)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
39.8% (103)
+8.3%
On power play, Evans has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Poehling is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
Evans
Poehling
Home
55.1% (541)
53.2% (393)
Away
50.8% (581)
48.3% (344)
By Period
Evans
Poehling
P1
51.8%
50.9%
P2
53.3%
56.2%
P3
53.8%
46.1%
OT
38.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:26 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 10:39 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 13:52 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 05:10 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 04:48 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |