Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Aho 54.9% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 88.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 82.7%
Neutral zone
Aho 56.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Evans
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Evans
Aho
Last 7: Evans 3-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Evans
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
54.5% (870)
-0.1%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
62.4% (266)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
37.1% (62)
+11.0%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Evans
Aho
Home
55.1% (541)
53.9% (603)
Away
50.8% (581)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Evans
Aho
P1
51.8%
54.1%
P2
53.3%
55.0%
P3
53.8%
57.4%
OT
38.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 17:29 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 17:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |