Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.2% vs 55.7%). Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Stamkos 54.6% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 84.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 86.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 53.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
Evans
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Evans
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
56.1% (342)
+0.1%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
53.3% (92)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
62.5% (8)
-7.1%
On power play, Evans has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Evans
Stamkos
Home
55.3% (374)
53.4% (208)
Away
57.1% (317)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Evans
Stamkos
P1
58.5%
55.6%
P2
55.7%
52.8%
P3
53.9%
59.1%
OT
66.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.3%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Jake Evans |