Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 49.8% vs Stamkos 50.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 78.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 62.8%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Evans
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Evans
Stamkos
Last 10: Evans 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Evans
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (739)
49.3% (789)
+2.0%
Power Play
53.3% (15)
56.9% (181)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (172)
54.1% (98)
-11.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Evans is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Evans shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Evans
Stamkos
Home
52.1% (503)
52.0% (512)
Away
47.0% (423)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Evans
Stamkos
P1
50.5%
42.1%
P2
47.7%
56.4%
P3
51.3%
53.7%
OT
40.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 28, 2021 | OT | 00:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 06:11 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 2 | 18:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 2 | 17:48 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 2 | 15:46 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 1 | 11:38 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Jake Evans |