Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 86.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 89.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 52.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Evans
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Evans
Stamkos
Last 10: Evans 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Evans
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
4
0
Evans
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
49.3% (670)
+5.1%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
53.7% (121)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
33.3% (3)
+14.8%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Evans is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Evans shoots right. Stamkos is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Evans
Stamkos
Home
55.1% (541)
54.0% (400)
Away
50.8% (581)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Evans
Stamkos
P1
51.8%
48.6%
P2
53.3%
54.5%
P3
53.8%
45.4%
OT
38.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:47 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:39 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 18:37 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 07:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |