Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 16-13 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 83.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 80.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Evans
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
16
(29 meetings)
13
16
Evans
Stamkos
Last 10: Evans 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
8
Evans
Stamkos
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
8
3
Evans
Stamkos
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Evans
Stamkos
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
50.4% (9,799)
+3.4%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
55.1% (1,725)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
49.7% (825)
-2.6%
On power play, Evans has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Evans is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,292).
Evans shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Evans
Stamkos
Home
53.4% (2,593)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Evans
Stamkos
P1
54.0%
49.1%
P2
50.9%
52.7%
P3
52.0%
50.9%
OT
46.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:47 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:39 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 18:37 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 07:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 09:12 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 00:25 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 14:24 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 15:54 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |