Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Evans wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 49.8% vs Thompson 41.2% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 72.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 62.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 51.6%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Evans
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Evans
Thompson
Last 10: Evans 5-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
4
Evans
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
5
3
Evans
Thompson
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (739)
40.6% (801)
+10.7%
Power Play
53.3% (15)
44.7% (103)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (172)
31.0% (71)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Evans is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Evans shoots right. Thompson is 41.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Evans
Thompson
Home
52.1% (503)
43.2% (507)
Away
47.0% (423)
37.2% (468)
By Period
Evans
Thompson
P1
50.5%
37.7%
P2
47.7%
43.4%
P3
51.3%
39.5%
OT
40.0%
27.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
39.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2022 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 16:08 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 03:06 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 1 | 15:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 17:38 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 03:47 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 03:31 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |