Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Thompson 43.7% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 85.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 79.9%
Neutral zone
Thompson 60.0%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Evans
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Evans
Thompson
Last 9: Evans 4-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Evans
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
41.9% (597)
+12.5%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
50.5% (95)
+16.2%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
25.0% (12)
+23.1%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Evans is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Evans shoots right. Thompson is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Evans
Thompson
Home
55.1% (541)
47.1% (367)
Away
50.8% (581)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Evans
Thompson
P1
51.8%
44.2%
P2
53.3%
41.6%
P3
53.8%
42.9%
OT
38.5%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 14:32 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:58 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 04:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |