Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs Thompson 43.8% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 78.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 93.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 82.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 85.4%
85.4%
14.6%
Evans
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Evans
Thompson
Last 6: Evans 5-1 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
43.3% (735)
+11.2%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
50.0% (26)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
36.5% (52)
+7.4%
On even strength, Evans has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Evans is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Evans shoots right. Thompson is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Home / Away
Evans
Thompson
Home
49.4% (336)
44.5% (407)
Away
54.8% (314)
41.6% (406)
By Period
Evans
Thompson
P1
55.8%
44.4%
P2
51.7%
44.8%
P3
48.2%
40.2%
OT
100.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:39 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2022 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 05:57 | Defensive | Jake Evans |