Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Thompson 42.8% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 27-17 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 72.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 96.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 89.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 88.0%
88.0%
12.0%
Evans
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
17
(44 meetings)
27
17
Evans
Thompson
Last 10: Evans 8-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
6
4
Evans
Thompson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
9
7
Evans
Thompson
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
12
6
Evans
Thompson
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
42.9% (3,521)
+10.9%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
46.8% (372)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
33.6% (265)
+13.5%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Evans is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,292).
Evans shoots right. Thompson is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,147).
Home / Away
Evans
Thompson
Home
53.4% (2,593)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Evans
Thompson
P1
54.0%
44.5%
P2
50.9%
43.6%
P3
52.0%
40.2%
OT
46.5%
36.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:29 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 14:32 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:58 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 04:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 12:12 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |