Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +25.9% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Zegras 35.4% (+25.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 79.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 89.9%
Neutral zone
Evans 67.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Evans
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Evans
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Evans
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
29.6% (230)
+26.6%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
32.1% (56)
+37.9%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
100.0% (1)
-44.6%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +44.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Zegras is 29.7% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Home / Away
Evans
Zegras
Home
55.3% (374)
30.6% (147)
Away
57.1% (317)
30.0% (140)
By Period
Evans
Zegras
P1
58.5%
33.0%
P2
55.7%
31.7%
P3
53.9%
25.6%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.3%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |