Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Zegras 39.2% (+13.6%)
H2H factor
Zegras leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Zegras 89.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 85.8%
Neutral zone
Zegras 57.0%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Evans
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Evans
Zegras
Last 10: Evans 4-6 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
2
Evans
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Zegras
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
3
4
Evans
Zegras
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
38.6% (1,669)
+15.2%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
38.5% (148)
+21.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
28.6% (7)
+18.5%
On power play, Evans has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Zegras is 37.8% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Evans
Zegras
Home
53.4% (2,593)
39.9% (882)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Evans
Zegras
P1
54.0%
40.2%
P2
50.9%
38.0%
P3
52.0%
37.7%
OT
46.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
50.4%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 06:37 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 09:54 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 04:23 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:17 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 06:39 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:44 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |