Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Guentzel 46.9% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 60.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 96.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 82.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Evans
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Evans
Guentzel
Last 6: Evans 5-1 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
4
0
Evans
Guentzel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
46.1% (256)
+8.3%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
47.5% (122)
+19.2%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
16.7% (6)
+31.4%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Guentzel is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Evans
Guentzel
Home
55.1% (541)
49.3% (201)
Away
50.8% (581)
42.6% (183)
By Period
Evans
Guentzel
P1
51.8%
49.6%
P2
53.3%
45.6%
P3
53.8%
41.6%
OT
38.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 15:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 08:43 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |