Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 47.4% vs Monahan 52.8% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 72.2%
Defensive zone
Monahan 73.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.1%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Guentzel
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Guentzel
Monahan
Last 6: Guentzel 3-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
2
0
Guentzel
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Guentzel
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
1
0
Guentzel
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (200)
53.2% (823)
-4.2%
Power Play
42.3% (111)
55.3% (159)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (24)
48.4% (95)
-2.6%
On power play, Monahan has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Guentzel is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Guentzel shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Monahan
Home
48.8% (166)
54.6% (529)
Away
44.4% (169)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Guentzel
Monahan
P1
46.7%
49.0%
P2
48.5%
55.4%
P3
44.3%
53.6%
OT
42.9%
61.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 12:10 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:59 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |