Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.3% vs Monahan 51.3% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Guentzel leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 54.9%
Defensive zone
Monahan 87.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 72.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 70.0%
30.0%
70.0%
Guentzel
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Guentzel
Monahan
Last 10: Guentzel 6-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
5
1
Guentzel
Monahan
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
4
Guentzel
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
1
0
Guentzel
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (685)
51.1% (11,356)
-4.8%
Power Play
45.7% (291)
53.7% (2,580)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (42)
46.0% (766)
-3.1%
On power play, Monahan has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Guentzel is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Guentzel shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Monahan
Home
48.3% (544)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
43.2% (474)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Guentzel
Monahan
P1
47.8%
50.9%
P2
45.2%
51.7%
P3
45.3%
51.0%
OT
33.3%
53.5%
Final 5 min
42.5%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 12:10 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:59 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:10 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:08 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 12:53 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |